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布伦特原油：选举驱动的风险溢价回落 – 荷兰国际集团
荷兰国际集团（ING）分析师沃伦-帕特森（Warren Patterson）和伊娃-曼西（Ewa Manthey）表示，在民主党横扫美国中期选举后，ICE 布伦特原油大幅抛售，因为市场已计入伊朗战争可能更快结束以及风险溢价消退。他们指出，基本面走弱、跨期价差疲软以及美国成品油库存仍然偏紧，但认为近期跌势的速度看起来过头了。
石油风险溢价料进一步侵蚀
"昨日油市大幅抛售，ICE 布伦特原油当日收跌 8.7%，并跌破每桶 95 美元。今天早盘交易中，抛压仍在持续。美国中期选举结果显示民主党赢得众议院和参议院，这增强了市场对伊朗战争可能更快结束的希望。"
"在没有局势升级的情况下，油市可能会继续缓慢回吐其在过去几个月建立的风险溢价，而波斯湾的石油流动保持良好。如果美国与伊朗之间达成某种协议，这一风险溢价可能会更快消失。从基本面看，油市正显得越来越疲软，这一点也反映在现货市场以及跨期价差的走弱上。"
"美国能源信息署（EIA）昨日公布的库存数据显示，上周美国商业原油库存减少 86.5 万桶。若计入战略储备释放，原油总库存减少 126 万桶。与此同时，成品油方面的变化更为利好，尤其是中间馏分油。"
"尽管炼油厂将开工率较上周提高了 1.7 个百分点至 94.5%，馏分燃料油库存仍减少了 357 万桶。这使得馏分油总库存自 2003 年以来首次降至 1 亿桶以下。汽油库存也小幅减少了 22.2 万桶。"
"这一切最终如何演变仍高度不确定。因此，油市抛售的幅度和速度似乎都过头了。人们会认为，特朗普可能希望从这场战争中带回一些成果。"
(本文由人工智能工具协助创建，并经过编辑审核。了解更多。)
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