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挪威克朗：关注挪威央行和能源价格 – 德国商业银行
德国商业银行（Commerzbank）的 Antje Praefcke 指出，挪威央行（Norges Bank）由于通胀持续高企，已在 9 月提前加息，预计今天将维持利率不变，同时保持“利率在更长时间内维持高位”的立场。市场对 12 月是否会采取行动并不确定；任何更强的紧缩信号都可能提振挪威克朗，不过油价和天然气价格仍是其主要驱动因素。
利率在更长时间内维持高位，12 月存在风险
“挪威央行在 9 月底决定提前实施政策利率加息，而不是等到 12 月。其理由集中在持续高企的通胀上，因为其他所有因素，包括对通胀有抑制作用的强势挪威克朗，以及企业对未来六个月经济活动的预期，都本可以让挪威央行等到年底再行动。”
“事实上，9 月整体通胀率同比为 3.4%，核心通胀率同比为 3.0%，而通胀目标为 2%，自疫情以来挪威央行一直未能实现这一目标。在此背景下，挪威央行提前加息并释放信号称政策利率将比此前预期更长时间维持在高位，这一决定是相当可以理解的。因此，挪威央行仍坚持‘利率在更长时间内维持高位’的立场，并且不排除进一步加息。”
“不过，今天挪威央行很可能按兵不动。在 9 月加息之后，在再次采取行动前，它可以等待更多数据，甚至可能根据其新的《货币政策报告》中的更新预测，在 12 月再次加息。尽管如此，挪威央行很可能会为进一步加息敞开大门，包括最早在 12 月。”
“市场预计挪威央行今天将维持不变，但远未确信其会在 12 月加息。因此，如果挪威央行今天释放出其在年底前更倾向于加息的信号，挪威克朗应会受益。不过，从更广泛来看，挪威克朗仍主要受油价和天然气价格驱动。”
(本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。了解更多。)
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