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欧元回吐涨幅，因德国工厂订单不及预期

Guillermo Alcala

November 5, 2026

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欧元/美元跌破 1.1250，但仍保持温和的日内涨幅，迄今本周仍上涨约 0.8%
德国工厂订单不及预期，部分抵消了风险偏好市场和油价下跌带来的推动。
美国 ADP 就业和服务业活动数据于周三证实了美国经济的强劲动能

欧元（EUR）周四连续第二个交易日兑美元（USD）走强，受油价大幅下跌提振，尽管在公布低于预期的德国工厂订单数据后，欧元已从时段高点回落。欧元/美元在从接近 1.1270 的时段高点回落后，交投于 1.1250 下方不远处，但仍有望录得三个月来最佳周度表现。

周四早些时候公布的数据显示，德国 9 月工厂订单环比反弹 4.4%，此前 8 月下降 10.1%，但不及市场预期的 4.8%增幅。按年率计算，订单增长 3.3%，高于 8 月的 3.2%。

美国大选令油价暴跌，并给欧元区经济带来喘息之机

在美国中期选举结果出炉后，油价大幅下跌提振了共同货币。布伦特原油价格在过去两天里暴跌约 20 美元，至接近 93.00 美元的水平，在市场希望失去支持将迫使美国总统唐纳德-特朗普寻求退出冲突之际，为欧元区石油进口型经济体提供了一些缓解。

特朗普周三为对伊朗的干预辩护，但副总统 JD Vance 在 X 上发帖称，这场战争是共和党失利的主要原因，而特朗普总统也承认了这一点

除此之外，周三公布的欧元区初步数据显示，10 月消费者通胀加速至同比 4%，这给欧洲央行（ECB）继续收紧货币政策施加了压力，并为欧元提供了额外支撑。

在美国，周三的数据进一步证明了经济动能强劲，但未能提振美元。ADP 就业数据显示，10 月净新增就业 8.6 万个，超过预期的 6.9 万个。ISM 服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）略低于预期，但仍处于与稳健活动相一致的水平

经济指标

德国工厂订单年率（未季调）

德国经济技术部（Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie）公布的工厂订单（Factory Orders）包括德国制造业所公布的新定单、未交货定单和库存及销售情况，它反映了德国工业生产和销售情况。该指标反映了制造生产情形的好坏，制造业的厂商通常是在接到订单后才安排生产的，因此该指标也被视为下一期生产活动的预兆。当订单大幅度减少时，反映制造业疲弱，下一期产量减少，可能导致失业率上升，经济发展放缓，将对欧元产生负面影响；反之，当订单大幅增加时，反映该国经济发展良好，欧元将受益上涨。

上次发布时间: 周四 11月 05, 2026 07:00

频率: 每月

实际值: 3.3%

预期值: -

前值: 2.7%

来源: Federal Statistics Office of Germany

经济指标

德国季调后工厂订单（月率）

上次发布时间: 周四 11月 05, 2026 07:00

频率: 每月

实际值: 4.4%

预期值: 4.8%

前值: -10.6%

来源: Federal Statistics Office of Germany

Guillermo Alcala

November 5, 2026

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